Intelligence Analysis: Professional Tradecraft (Advanced)
The analytic methods professional intelligence analysts are trained in — the intelligence cycle, structured analytic techniques, forecasting, OSINT investigations, threat intelligence, deception and briefing — applied to Africa.
What you'll learn
- Run the intelligence cycle from a decision-maker's question to a delivered assessment
- Apply the nine analytic tradecraft standards used by professional intelligence services
- Recognise and counter the cognitive biases that cause intelligence failures
- Use structured analytic techniques: ACH, key assumptions check, pre-mortem, indicators, red teaming
- Express judgments with calibrated probability language and confidence levels, and forecast well
- Conduct legal, ethical OSINT investigations: geolocation, verification, satellite imagery and source grading
- Understand cyber threat intelligence, counterintelligence and deception detection
- Write and brief intelligence with BLUF, and analyse Africa's strategic security environment
Course content
Part 1. The profession of intelligence analysis6 lessons
- How this course works — and the standard it holds you to
- The intelligence analysis series — introduction (Brian Urlacher)by Brian Urlacher4 min
- Thinking like a CIA analyst (The Cipher Brief)by The Cipher Brief48 min
- The collection disciplines: from HUMINT to CYBINTby Unredacted Briefs19 min
- HUMINT: what you need to know (former CIA officer)by Andrew Bustamante4 min
- Quiz: the profession
Part 2. The intelligence cycle — and how it fails5 lessons
Part 3. Critical thinking and analytic standards5 lessons
Part 4. The psychology of analysis: why smart people get it wrong5 lessons
Part 5. Structured analytic techniques11 lessons
- A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques (CIA, free PDF)
- Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)by Brian Urlacher18 min
- ACH in practice, part 1by Brian Urlacher16 min
- A worked example of ACHby Brian Urlacher10 min
- The pre-mortemby Brian Urlacher11 min
- Aggregating informationby Brian Urlacher10 min
- There's more to structured techniques than ACH (SANS CTI Summit)by SANS Digital Forensics and Incident Response32 min
- Utility analysisby Brian Urlacher17 min
- How to run the four techniques you'll use most
- Practice: an ACH matrix
- Quiz: structured analytic techniques
Part 6. Judgment, probability and forecasting9 lessons
- Judgmentby Brian Urlacher17 min
- Bayesian thinkingby Brian Urlacher11 min
- Forecastingby Brian Urlacher14 min
- Dealing with uncertainty in forecastingby Brian Urlacher11 min
- Why an open mind makes better predictions (Philip Tetlock)by Knowledge at Wharton26 min
- Can we teach good judgment?by Brian Urlacher20 min
- Words of Estimative Probability — Sherman Kent (CIA, free)
- Say how likely, and how sure: the estimative scale
- Quiz: probability and forecasting
Part 7. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) investigations10 lessons
- Start your geolocation search (Bellingcat)by Bellingcat7 min
- Video verification with InVID, Google Maps and Street View (SANS)by SANS Cyber Defense9 min
- A spy-satellite expert explains how to analyse satellite imageryby WIRED5 min
- What is geospatial intelligence? (NGA)by National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency2 min
- How open-source journalism transformed investigations at the BBCby BBC World Service1h 3m
- Bellingcat's Online Investigations Toolkit
- The Berkeley Protocol on Digital Open Source Investigations (UN)
- Grade your sources and keep your evidence clean
- Practice: geolocate and verify a public video
- Quiz: OSINT
Part 8. Cyber threat intelligence6 lessons
- Cyber threat intelligence explainedby Adam Goss11 min
- The cycle of cyber threat intelligence (SANS)by SANS Digital Forensics and Incident Response1h 0m
- Zero to CTI: a novice's journey into threat intelligence (SANS)by SANS Digital Forensics and Incident Response37 min
- Cyber threats to African security (Africa Center for Strategic Studies)by Africa Center for Strategic Studies20 min
- Three models every CTI analyst knows
- Quiz: cyber threat intelligence
Part 9. Counterintelligence, deception and denial5 lessons
- Deception and denial as strategy (Institute of World Politics)by The Institute of World Politics42 min
- Game of Pawns: anatomy of a recruitment (ODNI)by Office of the Director of National Intelligence28 min
- What makes traitors tick? (International Spy Museum)by International Spy Museum1h 31m
- Detecting deception: MOM, POP, MOSES, EVE
- Quiz: deception and counterintelligence
Part 10. Writing and briefing intelligence6 lessons
- Behind the President's Daily Brief (CIA)by Central Intelligence Agency1 min
- Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)by ScaleMath10 min
- Concision: the US Army Intelligence writing programmeby Military Intelligence Library7 min
- Writing open-source intelligence reportsby Mossé Cyber Security Institute3 min
- Anatomy of a one-page intelligence assessment
- Quiz: writing and briefing
Part 11. Strategic intelligence for Africa9 lessons
- What is a national security strategy and why have one? (Africa Center)by Africa Center for Strategic Studies13 min
- Conflict prevention and early warning (African Union)by AU Political Affairs Peace and Security Department14 min
- Get to know ACLED's conflict databy ACLED10 min
- ACLED Explorer tutorialby ACLED7 min
- Crisis in the Sahel (IISS)by The International Institute for Strategic Studies38 min
- Africa's contemporary security trends (Africa Center)by Africa Center for Strategic Studies58 min
- ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
- ISS Africa — analysis and early warning
- Quiz: strategic intelligence for Africa
Part 12. Ethics, law and your career2 lessons
Part 13. Final assessment1 lesson
Capstone project: Capstone: a full intelligence assessment and briefing. You finish by building something real; a mentor reviews it before your certificate is issued.
About this course
This is an advanced, demanding course built to the standard of professional intelligence analyst training. It uses the same public, declassified foundations agencies teach from — the CIA's Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and Tradecraft Primer, the US Intelligence Community's analytic standards (ICD 203) and Sherman Kent's words of estimative probability — together with a full university lecture series on analysis skills, SANS threat-intelligence talks, Bellingcat's investigators, Philip Tetlock's forecasting research, and Africa's own security institutions (the African Union, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, ISS and ACLED). You will practise Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, key assumptions checks, pre-mortems, geolocation and verification, estimative language and BLUF writing, and finish with a full intelligence assessment and briefing on a real African security question. TTA Africa is not affiliated with or endorsed by any government or intelligence agency; this course teaches legal, ethical, open-source methods only. About 15 hours of video plus substantial practice.